Fraud Prevalence and Prospective Prediction of Fraud Victimization in the Health and Retirement Study

Financial exploitation of older adults is an increasingly prevalent public health concern, yet few have characterized fraud prevalence longitudinally or evaluated whether financial exploitation vulnerability measures prospectively predict fraud outcomes. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined fraud prevalence across a 14-year period and tested whether the Perceived Financial Vulnerability Scale (PFVS) predicts subsequent fraud victimization among older adults. Fraud prevalence increased steadily over time, rising from 5.0% in 2008 (347 of N=6,920) to a peak of 10.2% in 2022 (448 of N=4,380). Higher PFVS scores measured in 2018 were associated with greater odds of fraud victimization reported in 2022 (OR=1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.15, p <.001). Most individuals who later reported fraud fell within the highest group of PFVS scores up to five years earlier. Together, these findings highlight financial exploitation as an emerging aging-related vulnerability and support the PFVS as a brief indicator of future fraud risk.