Integrated carbon emissions modelling and scenario analysis of marine fisheries in Shandong Province, China

Marine fisheries play a dual role in global warming as both a “carbon source” and “carbon sink.” This study analyzed carbon emissions from marine fisheries in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2022 by integrating carbon accounting, extended Kaya-LMDI decomposition, and System Dynamics (SD) modeling. The results reveal a distinct temporal trend characterized by an initial increase followed by a gradual decline in net carbon emissions, while marine carbon sinks increased steadily over the study period. Marine capture fisheries consistently remained the dominant source of total carbon emissions. Decomposition analysis reveals that economic scale and population were the primary drivers of carbon emission growth, while carbon intensity exerted a smaller but positive effect, whereas improvements in energy intensity and industrial structure contribute to emission reduction, highlighting the importance of energy efficiency improvement and industrial structural adjustment. Using a validated SD model to project trends from 2023 to 2035, we simulated three scenarios: Baseline (BS), High-Growth (HG), and Low-Carbon Development (LD) scenarios. The results show that the low-carbon development scenario achieves the most pronounced reduction in net carbon emissions, driven by simultaneous declines in capture emissions and a strong enhancement of carbon sink capacity from shellfish and algae aquaculture. In contrast, the baseline and high-growth scenarios exhibit relatively weaker mitigation effects. Overall, this study provides quantitative evidence and a strategic roadmap for advancing the green, sustainable transition of marine fisheries in Shandong Province, China.