Determinants of supply chain risk among listed firms in Nigeria: Evidence from panel data (2010-2024)

Supply chain risk (SCR) has emerged as one of the most pressing strategic concerns for firms operating in frontier and emerging markets, particularly in the context of Nigeria's complex business environment. This study investigates the determinants of SCR among 151 listed firms on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) over the period 2010 to 2024, employing panel regression methodology with both fixed-effects and random-effects estimations validated through the Hausman specification test. The study identifies five primary determinants: supply chain complexity (SCC), geographic dispersion (GD), inventory management practices (IMP), technology adoption (TA), and the financial health of suppliers (FHS), with firm size (FS), industry type (INDT), regulatory environment (RE), market volatility (MV), and supply chain experience (SCE) serving as control variables. Drawing on the resource-based view (RBV), dynamic capabilities theory, and transaction cost economics (TCE), the study finds that SCC and GD exert statistically significant positive effects on SCR, while robust IMP, advanced TA, and strong FHS significantly mitigate SCR. Control variables reveal that larger firms and firms with longer supply chain experience demonstrate lower SCR exposure. The findings contribute to the nascent but growing body of supply chain risk literature in sub-Saharan Africa, offering empirical grounding that is largely absent in the existing scholarship. The study recommends that Nigerian listed firms invest in digital supply chain infrastructure, strengthen supplier financial screening protocols, and pursue regional supply diversification strategies to reduce systemic vulnerability.