Understanding climate variability through meteorological trends and chicken farmers’ perceptions in Soroti district Uganda

Promoting effective strategies to cope with climate variability requires alignment between farmers’ perceptions and actual climatic data. This study examined farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of climate variability in relation to 20 years (2003–2022) of meteorological data. Data were collected from 271 purposively selected indigenous chicken farmers, 10 key informants, four focus group discussions, and local station climate records. Analytical methods included descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, ordered probit regression, and the Modified Mann–Kendall test for trend analysis. Results revealed a significant positive trend in monthly minimum temperatures, while no significant trends were found in annual or seasonal rainfall, or average and maximum temperatures. Annual rainfall ranged from 1019.5 ± 7.58 to 1721.8 ± 11.25 mm, with a 20-year average of 1311.9 ± 9.14 mm. Temperature averages were 24.68 ± 1.52 °C (mean), 19.05 ± 1.22 °C (minimum), and 30.31 ± 2.46 °C (maximum). Climate variability knowledge and perceptions differed among males and female farmers. Most farmers (84.1%) were aware of climate variability, noting decreases in annual rainfall (63.8%), length of the first (67.3%) and second (50.6%) rainy seasons, and hailstones (49.4%). Many also perceived increases in dry (91.1%) and rainy (71.2%) season temperatures, dry season wind intensity (71.5%), and drought frequency (79.3%). Farmers’ perceptions aligned with climate data for rising monthly minimum temperatures but not declining rainfall. Many attributed climate variability to human activity and pollution. These findings highlight the need for improved climate education and timely-localized weather information tailored to farmers’ demographic contexts. Strengthening farmers’ capacity to interpret seasonal patterns and conducting further research on coping strategies and their determinants are essential for guiding targeted adaptation policies. Climatic station data showed positive but non-significant rainfall trends at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, while temperature trends were similarly non-significant except for a significant increase in monthly minimum temperature. A marked reduction in March rainfall was observed, which contributed to a decline in length of the March–May (MAM) season. Additionally, seasonal average, minimum and maximum temperatures varied from the long-term seasonal means between the 2003–2012 and the 2013–2022 decades. Chicken farmers perceived climate variability as rising temperatures, increased drought frequency and reduced rainfall intensity and duration. Farmers’ perceptions aligned with observed data for temperature but not for rainfall. Integrating climatic data with farmers’ perceptions in this study provides a better understanding of climate variability in Uganda.