Governance, Innovation, and Complexity: Reassessing Energy Transition and Carbon Outcomes in G8 Economies Through a Quantile‐Based Framework

ABSTRACT Energy transition and carbon emissions of G8 economies from 1990 to 2021 are examined in this study, along with the ways in which environmental governance, economic complexity, green innovation, geopolitical risk, and economic growth are influenced. The study identifies distributional differences that mean‐based models often ignore using Method of Moments Quantile Regression. Economic complexity encourages long‐term decarbonization but limits energy transition in multiple quantiles, whereas green innovation continuously speeds up the transition to clean energy. While environmental governance is a key factor in reduced emissions and more robust transition routes, it becomes less effective when geopolitical tensions are high. Although geopolitical risk is known to impede energy transition and increase emissions, the interplay between geopolitical risk and governance shows that robust institutions mitigate some of this sensitivity. There have to be growth strategies that are in line with environmental goals because economic development slows transition progress and increases emissions. The results show that the rate and quality of low‐carbon development in developed economies are affected by technical capacity, governance strength, and geopolitical stability. Insights from this study can help G8 officials achieve SDGs 7 and 9, which pertain to renewable energy, SDG 9 to innovation and industrial transformation, and SDG 13, which is climate action.