The U.S.–Iranian Rivalry in Iraq: The Impact of Cross-Influence on the State and Political Forces During 2019

The year 2019 marked a turning point in the strategic rivalry between the United States and Iran in Iraq. This study examines how the cross-cutting influence of both powers deeply impacted Iraq’s political landscape during this pivotal year, particularly in the context of the October protest movement. It analyzes the tools—political, military, and diplomatic—employed by both actors to maintain and expand their leverage through local allies, while also assessing how these dynamics shaped internal divisions and state fragility. Special attention is given to the reactions of Iraqi political forces, the shifting alignments within Shi’a blocs, the cautious positioning of Sunni and Kurdish actors, and the role of the religious establishment in Najaf. The assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is also addressed as a catalyst for internal polarization and a challenge to Iraq’s sovereign decision-making. The study concludes that, in the absence of a cohesive national project, Iraq remained a contested arena for external rivalries, with its sovereignty and institutional integrity repeatedly undermined by the conflicting agendas of foreign powers and their domestic allies.