Abstract

Sea-surface chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) is a core indicator reflecting phytoplankton biomass and marine ecological conditions. Its spatiotemporal variation patterns are closely related to environmental changes and human activities, especially in coastal waters around heavily populated areas, e.g., the Bohai Sea in China. Benefiting from long time-series ocean-color (i.e., Chl-a provided by Aqua-MODIS) multi-source merged sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed (i.e., ERA5) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration (DIN) data, this study investigated the long-term variation characteristics of Chl-a in the Bohai Sea and its influencing factors during the period of 2003 to 2022. After rigorous quality control and data reconstruction, this study analyzed the interannual, seasonal, and spatial variation patterns of Chl-a in the Bohai Sea across five ecological functional subregions (Bohai Bay, the Qinhuangdao coast, Liaodong Bay, Laizhou Bay, and the central Bohai Sea), and explored the influence of SST, wind speed, and DIN on variations in Chl-a. The results showed that the spatial distribution of Chl-a in the Bohai Sea exhibited a significant coastal–offshore gradient, with higher concentrations in coastal bays and the Qinhuangdao coast and lower concentrations in the central Bohai Sea. Temporally, despite a long-term trend of first increasing and then decreasing with a peak around 2011, Chl-a underwent a significant regime shift around 2015. After the shift, the average concentration decreased by 0.36 mg/m3 compared with that before the shift. On a seasonal scale, the average Chl-a concentration over the whole Bohai showed the largest decrease in summer (−0.65 mg/m3) and the smallest decrease in winter (−0.21 mg/m3), with contrasting changes among subregions: the Qinhuangdao coast had the most significant decrease (−1.54 mg/m3), while Laizhou Bay remained basically stable. Driver mechanism analysis indicated that Chl-a in the Bohai Sea was significantly negatively correlated with SST (r = −0.51, p = 0.022) and significantly negatively correlated with wind speed (r = −0.77, p < 0.01). Furthermore, both SST and wind speed have undergone significant regime shifts toward a warmer and a windier state, respectively. The timing of these climatic shifts coincided with or preceded the Chl-a regime shift, which may help suppress phytoplankton blooms and maintain lower Chl-a levels. In addition, the surface DIN concentration in Bohai Bay decreased by 23.6% after the Chl-a regime shift, indicating a reduction in nutrient input may be responsible for the decrease in Chl-a in this region. The research results reveal the long-term variation patterns and multi-factor synergistic regulatory mechanism of Chl-a in the Bohai Sea, providing a scientific reference for red-tide monitoring and early warning as well as regional ecological environment management in the Bohai Sea.