Carbon footprint and the silver wave: how population ageing affects household indirect carbon emissions

Population ageing, as a pivotal turning point in demographic shifts, presents both transformative opportunities for low-carbon development and formidable challenges. Existing literature has predominantly concentrated on the macro-level impact of supply-side factors on carbon emissions reduction. However, it has relatively overlooked the critical role of micro-level household consumption behaviors on the demand side in shaping carbon footprints. Moreover, there is a lack of comprehensive discussions on the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Therefore, this study empirically examines the impact of population ageing on household indirect carbon emissions using balanced panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2020 and 2022. The study employed moderation and threshold effects models to thoroughly identify their transmission mechanisms and nonlinear characteristics. The main findings indicate that population ageing significantly accelerates the growth of household indirect carbon emissions. Social security enhances this positive effect, functioning as a moderating variable. Income levels exhibit clear threshold characteristics. Additionally, the relationship between population ageing and household indirect carbon emissions follows an inverted U-shaped nonlinear pattern, indicating that as income levels rise, the effect of aging initially increases and subsequently declines. Heterogeneity analysis further highlights that household characteristics, such as household registration type, regional geography, internet usage, and consumption patterns, have significant heterogeneous effects on household indirect carbon emissions. This study offers micro-level empirical evidence and serves as a valuable reference for governments in formulating differentiated household carbon reduction policies tailored to the characteristics of population ageing.