Disentangling human activity and climate change impacts on suitable habitats of Taxus in China using an ensemble modeling approach

• Dual-ensemble modeling disentangles human and climate impacts on Taxus habitats • T. wallichiana var. mairei faces highest anthropogenic pressure among five taxa • Severe warming causes 30-97% loss of highly suitable habitats by 2100 This study employs an ensemble modeling approach to systematically assess the impacts of human activities and climate change on suitable habitats of five Taxus species in China ( T. wallichiana var. mairei, T. cuspidata, T. chinensis, T. wallichiana , and T. yunnanensis ). The research integrates ten statistical and machine learning algorithms alongside eight CMIP6 climate models, analyzing habitat changes through 2100 under four emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). Results reveal that human activities are associated with reductions in habitat suitability across all species, though vulnerabilities differ markedly. T. wallichiana var. mairei , distributed in densely populated mid-lower Yangtze River mountains, experiences the highest and most rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressure (Human Footprint Index rising from 11 in 1993 to 13 in 2009), with highly suitable habitat contracting from 14 × 10¹¹ m² to 11 × 10¹¹ m². T. cuspidata , constrained by its narrow distribution range, shows the strongest negative association between human footprint and habitat suitability among the five taxa, with modeled suitable habitat area declining from 3.6 × 10¹¹ m² under the climate-only model to 2.75 × 10¹¹ m² under the HF2009 model. Climate change poses more severe long-term threats. Under extreme warming (SSP5-8.5), model projections suggest T. cuspidata suitable habitat could decline to approximately 2.4 × 10¹¹ m² by 2081-2100, though this estimate is subject to greater uncertainty given the limited occurrence records available for this species (n = 14). All species exhibit consistent northwestward migration toward higher elevations, but geographic barriers—particularly the absence of suitable mountainous terrain north of the Yangtze River—will prevent northward tracking, resulting in inevitable habitat loss. The study emphasizes urgent needs for adaptive conservation strategies including high-elevation protected area networks, assisted migration, and comprehensive monitoring systems.