Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Food-Related Carbon Emissions? Evidence from China

Background/Objectives: Rising incomes worldwide are reshaping dietary patterns and intensifying concern about the carbon impacts of household food consumption. This study examines how economic development influences food-related carbon emissions in China, with a focus on household food consumption behavior and dietary change. Methods: Using longitudinal household data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey covering 2004–2011, we apply a panel threshold regression model to identify nonlinear income effects on food-related carbon emissions. Results: Within the 2004–2011 sample, household income is positively associated with food-related emissions, but the marginal effect declines once income exceeds the estimated threshold. The baseline model identifies a single threshold at 6.5479 (95% confidence interval: 6.4965, 6.5917), corresponding to 65,479 yuan in annual household income. The single-threshold test is significant at the 5% level (p = 0.035), and the adjusted R2 is 0.243. Income growth significantly increases the consumption of greenhouse-gas-intensive foods and associated emissions among low-income households, whereas food consumption patterns among high-income households are comparatively more stable within the sample period. Conclusions: These findings indicate that rising income can intensify food-related carbon pressure during China’s dietary transition, particularly through dietary upgrading among low-income households, but they do not provide direct evidence that household food emissions will stabilize automatically over time.