Shifting balance between natural mortality and harvesting in forests of the northeastern USA

Natural disturbance is increasing in temperate forests worldwide as global change impacts intensify, potentially shifting the balance between forest harvesting and natural disturbance as drivers of biomass change and forest dynamics. Using national forest inventory data, we show that the balance between forest harvesting and natural mortality shifted considerably over the past two decades in the northeastern USA due to a rise in natural mortality, with harvesting accounting for 5% greater biomass loss than natural mortality in 2009 but natural mortality accounting for 39% greater biomass loss than harvesting in 2024. Occurrence of moderate–high-severity natural disturbance also increased. Our results challenge the paradigm of forest harvesting as the dominant cause of tree mortality and disturbance in the northeastern USA and support mitigation and recovery from natural disturbance as elements of forest policy and management strategies.