A framework for the economic evaluation of lunar mining projects

Lunar mining is widely discussed as a component of a future space economy, yet progress in the field remains fragmented, with limited consensus on development priorities or the sequence of actions required to achieve economic viability. This study proposes an economic structuring framework to address this gap by examining the conditions under which lunar mining projects could transition from exploratory activity to economically viable operations. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is adopted as a reference framework, not to estimate present-day project value, but to identify the economic parameters that must ultimately be constrained to support financeable development. By disaggregating the core variables of the DCF formulation and mapping them to the lunar context, the analysis highlights where uncertainty prevents meaningful valuation and where effort must be concentrated to advance project maturity. Geological uncertainty is identified as the most immediate constraint, while market formation, policy transparency, and technology scaling are shown to play critical roles in constraining downstream economic variables. The central contribution of this work is the formulation of a logically ordered critical path derived from economic decision requirements, linking resource characterization, market development, technology maturation, and operational stability. Departures from this dependency sequence are shown to increase the risk of misaligned assumptions, inefficient technology development, and capital misallocation. By framing DCF as an end-state decision gate, the paper provides a coherent roadmap for guiding research, investment, and policy toward an economically viable lunar resource industry.