From Aging to Upcycling: Circular Management of Agricultural Plastic Mulch Films via Quality-conditioned Routing

• Multifactor aging governs the post-use quality and route feasibility of APMFs. • MII-CI provides a dual-axis framework for quality-conditioned routing. • Tiered routing and reuse grades separate feasibility from outlet safety. • PRU links prediction, recycling and upcycling with feedback and governance. • Cost, logistics and contamination control determine real circularity outcomes. Agricultural plastic mulch films (APMFs) are a diffuse, soil-contact plastic stream whose end-of-life (EoL) outcomes are constrained by in-field aging and persistent contamination. Evidence relevant to circular management remains fragmented across agronomy, polymer degradation, and resource management. This critical review synthesizes knowledge from aging to resource recovery by linking (i) multifactor stressors and degradation mechanisms, (ii) post-use feedstock quality and safety, and (iii) feasible recycling, reuse, and upcycling portfolios under real-world constraints. We show how coupled ultraviolet (UV)–thermal–mechanical stresses and agrochemical/biological interactions drive oxidation, embrittlement, heterogeneity, and agrochemical burdens, which in turn govern collectability, washing intensity, processing stability, emissions, and outlet eligibility. To operationalize decision-making, we propose a dual-axis decision space using a Mechanical Integrity Index (MII) and a Contamination Index (CI) as a shared screening language for quality-conditioned routing, supported by tiered allocation logic and risk-aware hazard gates for higher-exposure outlets. We then compare mechanical recycling with solvent-based, chemical, and thermochemical routes under non-ideal feedstocks, explicitly distinguishing material circularity from fuel-oriented outputs. Finally, we introduce a Prediction–Recycling–Upcycling (PRU) framework that couples aging/quality prediction with region-specific collection infrastructure, logistics, and governance levers, enabling feedback based on key performance indicators to avoid “paper circularity”. The review provides decision-relevant metrics and implementation levers to advance circular management of APMFs while limiting microplastic leakage and chemical exposure risks.