Integrating Ecological Risks and Ecosystem Services in Ecological Zoning Studies on the Western Sichuan Plateau

Ecological zoning is a critical instrument for coordinating economic development with environmental conservation, ensuring regional ecological security, and fostering sustainable development. Using the Western Sichuan Plateau (WSP) as a case study and taking 2000, 2010, and 2020 as the time nodes, this research employed an optimized landscape ecological risk assessment model to comprehensively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of regional landscape ecological risk (LER) and ecosystem services (ESs). By analyzing the spatial correlation between LER and ESs, we constructed an ecological zoning framework, identified key driving factors, and proposed differentiated management strategies. The results showed the following: (1) The LER generally declined from 2000 to 2020, with the high-risk areas mainly distributed in the high-elevation meadow belt in the west and north, and the low and lowest-risk areas concentrated in the eastern part of the plateau continued to expand in area. (2) The overall level of ESs showed a downward and then upward trend, with a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. (3) LER was significantly negatively correlated with most ESs (except WY), and localized agglomeration was clearly characterized. (4) Based on the four-quadrant model, the study area was categorized into four types of ecological zones, high LER–high ES, low LER–high ES, low LER–low ES and high LER–low ES, whose spatial patterns were mainly significantly influenced by factors such as elevation, per capita GDP and precipitation (PRE). The “risk-service” synergistic zoning framework proposed in this study provides a spatially explicit decision-making basis for ecological protection and restoration on the WSP, and is useful for the sustainable management of similar ecologically fragile areas.