Fracture Pressure Prediction for Tight Conglomerate Reservoirs with Analysis of Acid Pretreatment Influence

Tight conglomerate reservoirs are characterized by strong heterogeneity, significant in-situ stress differences, and unbalanced fracturing stimulation, which make fracture pressure prediction challenging and severely restrict the effectiveness of reservoir stimulation and ultimate recovery. Although acid pretreatment is an effective means to reduce fracture pressure, its quantitative relationship with fracture pressure remains unclear. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic method that integrates reservoir heterogeneity characterization, data augmentation, and intelligent prediction. Aiming at the tight conglomerate reservoir in the MH Block, this study proposes an intelligent fracture pressure prediction and acid pretreatment optimization method that integrates Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), and Transformer models. First, SOM is used to perform unsupervised clustering of logging parameters to identify different geological feature categories and achieve fine-scale characterization of reservoir heterogeneity. Second, to address the issue of limited samples within each cluster, GAN is employed for high-quality data augmentation to expand the training sample set. Finally, a fracture pressure prediction model is constructed based on the Transformer architecture, and the influence of acid treatment parameters on fracture pressure is quantitatively analyzed using the SHAP method and laboratory experiments. The results show that the proposed model achieves a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.93, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.38 MPa, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.02% on the test set, with prediction accuracy significantly outperforming benchmark models such as BPNN, XGBoost, and LSTM. Ablation experiments verify that both the SOM clustering and GAN augmentation modules effectively enhance model performance. Analysis of acid treatment parameters indicates that hydrofluoric acid (HF) concentration is the dominant factor influencing fracture pressure reduction, and the mud acid system exhibits a stronger synergistic effect compared to the single hydrochloric acid system. Reasonable optimization of acid concentration and dosage can significantly reduce fracture pressure (3.14–5.28 MPa). This method provides a theoretical basis and engineering guidance for accurate fracture pressure prediction and optimal design of acid pretreatment in tight conglomerate reservoirs.