Surface specific performance patterns in men's singles competition at the 2025 Grand Slam tournaments

This study analyzed post match data from the men's singles events at the 2025 Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon Championships to examine the relationship between match outcomes and technical performance across different court surfaces. Technical variables were compared between winners and losers using paired-samples t-tests, followed by exploratory binary logistic regression to identify key performance indicators. Surface-related differences in champions’ performance were examined descriptively across hard, clay, and grass courts. The results indicated that first serve points won and return points won were key predictors of match outcomes across all surfaces, with return points won showing predictive value specifically at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and break point conversion rate being predictive at the French Open. Championship players recorded a higher number of winners at the French Open compared with the Australian Open and Wimbledon, suggesting that surface-specific bounce characteristics may facilitate more aggressive offensive play.