Operational Discharge Severity Analysis and Multi-Horizon Forecasting Based on Reservoir Operation Data: A Case Study of Ba Ha Hydropower Reservoir, Vietnam

Reservoir release induced flooding is a major downstream hazard worldwide, yet most warning systems rely on hydraulic modeling and underuse real time reservoir operation data. This study presents a data driven framework to detect flood discharge events, assess downstream operational severity, and forecast daily discharges using deep learning. The approach was validated at the Ba Ha hydropower reservoir (Vietnam) with inflow, discharge, water level, and CHIRPS rainfall data to represent basin-scale precipitation forcing. More than 160 discharge events were identified using a composite Operational Severity Index (OSI) based on peak discharge, duration, and rise rate; although only ~2% were extreme, they posed the greatest risks. Among three Transformer-based models, Informer achieved the best short-term forecasting performance (RMSE ≈ 78 m3/s, R2 ≈ 0.80), while Autoformer showed greater stability at longer horizons (3–7 days). In contrast, all models exhibited reduced skill under abrupt and extreme discharge conditions. These results demonstrate that combining trend and anomaly-aware modeling enables reliable discharge prediction and severity assessment without complex hydraulic simulations. The proposed framework provides a practical foundation for reservoir early warning systems by transforming routine operational data into actionable flood-risk information.