Survival in uncertainty: population dynamics of a key Endangered leopard population in West Africa amid escalating security challenges

In the Anthropocene, protected areas play a key role in safeguarding biodiversity and natural resources, yet they face mounting challenges. Increasingly, they are exposed to anthropogenic threats, including armed conflict and insecurity. The W-Arly-Pendjari (WAP) Complex, spanning Benin, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is both a global conservation priority and a hotspot of armed conflict. Within this complex, Pendjari National Park holds one of West Africa’s last leopard ( Panthera pardus ) populations, listed as Endangered in the region, but until now it has lacked sustained, large-scale monitoring. Using biennial camera-trap surveys from 2017 to 2023, we showed that leopards in the core of Pendjari persist at a relatively low, but likely increasing, density (from 0.62 in 2017 to 2.08 individuals/100 km² in 2023). Apparent survival was moderately high (0.72, 95% CI = 0.55-0.88), with recruitment sufficient to sustain growth, at 0.44 (95% CI = 0.04-0.77) per capita annually, which is consistent with a small, but recovering population. Leopards were predominantly nocturnal, but diurnal activity increased over the study period, with strong temporal overlap between sexes. Despite persistent security challenges, results suggest that the Pendjari leopard population is likely growing, probably due to reinforced park protection since 2017. However, the lack of cub detection is concerning, and the increasing number of illegal incursions, particularly poaching events reported in 2024, pose a serious threat. Safeguarding this population and others in conflict zones will require integrated approaches, including stronger cross-border collaboration, improved protection of neighbouring parks, greater community engagement, and equitable resource governance.