Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blade–Disk Dovetail Joints Considering Failure Correlation

The service environment of the turbine blade–disk dovetail joint structure in aero-engines is complex. Uncertainties in material properties and geometry, as well as the failure correlations among multiple locations or components, make reliability assessment challenging. First, a probabilistic life modeling method based on linear heteroscedastic regression is proposed, and the Manson–Coffin probabilistic life models of DD6 and FGH96 alloys at 650 °C are established. Then, the Copula function is introduced to characterize the failure dependence structure, and the effectiveness of the method is verified through numerical examples. Fatigue-critical locations of the dovetail are identified, and a Kriging surrogate model is established to obtain the probabilistic stress distribution at the critical locations. Subsequently, the Copula method is employed to conduct reliability analysis of dovetail structures. The results show that the reliability of multiple dovetails considering correlation lies between that of a single dovetail and that under the assumption of complete independence. Moreover, the life of the entire disk dovetail structure is significantly influenced by the number of dovetails and the required reliability level. Finally, the study is extended to the blade–disk dovetail multi-component system. The results indicate that when correlation is considered, the reliability of both components decreases, and the overall structural life is dominated by the dovetail component with the lower life. The analytical method proposed in this paper provides theoretical support and engineering reference for the reliability design and life assessment of aero-engine rotor structures.