Sequential game analysis of subsidy withdrawal and sustainable operation of China Railway Express

Abstract The China Railway Express plays a pivotal role in promoting a safe and environmentally friendly Eurasian transport network. As government subsidies are gradually withdrawn, its sustainability and operational stability face increasing challenges. This paper employs a sequential game to elucidate the mutual influence mechanism among shippers, carriers, and the government within China Railway Express and maritime competition. It analyses the impact of subsidy withdrawal on the decisions of market participants. The study explores, through numerical analysis, the influence of key factors like return factor and transportation costs on subsidy withdrawal. It identifies the optimal timing and essential measures for subsidy withdrawal. Ultimately, the research results provide a quantitative framework for achieving safe, efficient, and sustainable operation of the China Railway Express under subsidy withdrawal and offer methodological insights for other multimodal transport systems.