What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to analyze the probabilities related to Militia Bugler's creature selection effect in the game.

April 15, 2026Open Access

Probabilistic Analysis of Conditional Creature Selection: Militia Bugler — A Pauper Format Case Study in Magic: The Gathering

Key Points

The aim is to analyze the probabilities related to Militia Bugler's creature selection effect in the game.
Developed a probabilistic framework to evaluate selection effects.
Derived expressions for hit and miss probabilities based on complete and incomplete information.
Analyzed the selection depth and its relation to deck composition and game state.
Exact probabilities for hitting or missing in different scenarios were derived.
Revealed that the composition of the deck significantly influences the reliability of Militia Bugler's effect.
Highlighted how the game state impacts the selection process and probabilities.

Abstract

We present a probabilistic framework for analyzing Militia Bugler, a conditional creature selection effect in Magic: The Gathering that looks at the top four cards of the library and may put a creature card with power 2 or less into the player's hand. We derive exact expressions for hit and miss probabilities under both complete and incomplete information, analyze the selection depth (how many eligible creatures the player sees), and quantify how deck composition and game state affect the reliability of the trigger.

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Probabilistic Analysis of Conditional Creature Selection: Militia Bugler — A Pauper Format Case Study in Magic: The Gathering

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