An Adaptive Multi-Scale Framework for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Sustainable Grids

Stability and sustainability are the operational bottom lines of modern power grids. However, the inherent volatility and non-stationarity of wind energy, particularly in complex terrains, severely threaten power grid stability. To address this challenge, we propose an end-to-end architecture named the Adaptive Multi-scale Routing Wind Power forecasting (AMR-Wind) framework. The framework is principally composed of three sequential modules: an Adaptive Frequency Disentanglement Module (AFDM), an inverted Transformer (iTransformer), and a Scale-Routing Gated Recurrent Unit (SRGRU). The AFDM utilizes a differentiable filter bank to dynamically disentangle complex spectral signatures and mitigate mode mixing. The iTransformer is employed to effectively capture the complex multivariate dependencies between these disentangled modes and exogenous meteorological features. The SRGRU utilizes hierarchical temporal routing to synchronize localized high-frequency ramp events with macroscopic evolutionary trends. Comprehensive evaluations across four diverse wind farms demonstrate that AMR-Wind reduces the RMSE by an average of 8.4% and improves the R2 by at least 1.0% compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Ablation studies further confirm the modules’ strong synergistic effects, yielding a 7.6% reduction in forecasting errors. This framework reduces the error in wind energy prediction, providing a reliable tool for the stability and sustainability of the power grid.