Historical Trend and Future Projection of Extreme Seasonal Precipitation over Ethiopia, East Africa

East Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change due to limited adaptive capacity and strong reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Ethiopia, in particular, experiences recurrent socio-economic losses from droughts and floods. This study presents a national-scale assessment of observed (1981–2010) and projected (2041–2100) changes in extreme seasonal precipitation across Ethiopia using ten ETCCDIs. High-resolution Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) observations and bias-corrected outputs from a selected ensemble of CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are used to assess historically trends and future extreme precipitation, respectively. Historical trends show increases in extreme precipitation during the Kiremt (JJAS) season, particularly over the northwestern, western, and southwestern highlands; however, most of these increases are not statistically significant. In contrast, the Belg (FMAM) season exhibits widespread declines, which are also largely not statistically significant. Future projections suggest increases in total precipitation (PRCPTOT), heavy (R10) and very heavy rainfall days (R20), very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days (R95p), and rainfall intensity (SDII) over northwestern, western, southwestern, and parts of northeastern Ethiopia during JJAS. During FMAM, PRCPTOT is projected to increase in the northern and northwestern regions, while decreases are expected in the northeastern and southeastern regions. The Awash and Tekeze basins emerge as key hotspots of change, indicating potential seasonal shifts and an increased likelihood of extreme weather in these regions. Despite inter-model uncertainty, the results highlight the need for flexible, uncertainty-informed adaptation strategies to enhance climate resilience in Ethiopia.