A Study on Student Population Estimates and School Consolidation Criteria Based on Commutable Areas Determined by Travel Time

Key Points

• This study aims to estimate student populations in high schools by analyzing travel time to enhance school consolidation planning.
• Defined commutable areas based on travel times to high schools in Okayama Prefecture.
• Estimated student numbers for 2050 using population change rates within defined commuting zones.
• Conducted consolidation simulations to evaluate criteria based on travel convenience.
• Projected a significant decrease in student numbers in Okayama Prefecture, with some high schools expected to have fewer than 100 students by 2050.
• Simulations indicated a reduction of 7 high schools if the consolidation criterion is set at 60 students per grade level, with 95% of students able to commute within 60 minutes.

Abstract