Improved Prediction of Freeze–Thaw Resistance of Steel-Fiber-Reinforced Concrete in Cold-Region Tunnels Based on Machine Learning

The durability and serviceability of steel-fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC) tunnel linings in cold regions are significantly challenged by repeated freeze–thaw actions, making the accurate prediction of frost resistance a critical engineering problem. Although extensive research has been conducted on the freeze–thaw characteristics of concrete, the existing empirical and mechanism-based models remain limited in capturing the complex nonlinear interactions among mixture proportions, steel fiber characteristics, and environmental conditions. Therefore, a data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning was developed in this study. A database containing 277 groups of standardized SFRC freeze–thaw test results was established, incorporating key variables including mixture design parameters, fiber properties, and freeze–thaw cycle conditions. Four machine-learning models, namely, support vector regression, back-propagation neural network, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were constructed and systematically compared. Model accuracy was assessed using MAE, MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and R2. The results demonstrate that all models can reflect the nonlinear relationship between the input variables and mass loss rate, while the XGB model exhibits superior predictive performance with a testing R2 of 0.91, representing an improvement of approximately 3–28% compared with other models. Meanwhile, the prediction errors are reduced significantly, with RMSE and MAE decreased by about 19–58% and 22–65%, respectively. The proposed approach provides an improved and reliable tool for predicting frost resistance and supports the durability design and optimization of SFRC tunnel linings in severe cold-region environments.