Changes in Glaciers of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan Under Global Climate Change

The VRB represents one of the most important glacierized regions in the upper Amu Darya Basin (UADB), where glacier and snow dynamics play a key role in regional water resources. This study investigates glacier changes in the VRB during 2000–2025 based on multi-source remote sensing and GIS analysis, while long-term climatic variability since 1970 is used to provide background context for regional climate conditions. The results show a significant reduction in glacier area from 4440.9 km2 in 2000 to 3955.2 km2 in 2025, corresponding to a loss of 485.7 km2 (10.94%). The glaciers are mainly distributed on northern and northeastern slopes at elevations between 4000 and 5000 m a.s.l., where climatic conditions favor their preservation. The basin also contains numerous surge-type glaciers, accounting for approximately 60% of all surge-type glaciers in the Pamir region, with advances ranging from 0.4 to 3.6 km. Climatic analysis indicates a warming trend of 0.15–0.31 °C per decade during 1970–2025, accompanied by pronounced seasonal variability in snow cover and gradual decreases in surface albedo associated with increased dust and black carbon concentrations. Glacier thinning is particularly evident in the lower glacier zones, while hydrological analysis shows that glacier and snow meltwater strongly influence river runoff. These results highlight the sensitivity of glaciers in the VRB to climatic and environmental changes and emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and adaptive water resource management in the VRB.