GenAI and synthetic foresight at the brink: The future of nuclear crisis decision-making

Abstract This article examines how generative AI (GenAI) is reshaping strategic crisis decision-making through the emergence of ‘synthetic foresight’ – the algorithmic simulation of adversary intentions, escalation pathways, and imagined futures under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike traditional practices such as early warning, scenario planning, wargaming, or red teaming, which discipline strategic imagination through structured engagement with uncertainty, GenAI functions as a synthetic cognitive and strategic actor, shaping how leaders anticipate, interpret, and respond to crises in real time. While the implications of GenAI span multiple domains, this study focuses on nuclear crises as the most acute and consequential test of these dynamics. The article identifies three interrelated risks: the normalisation of low-probability escalation pathways, the misattribution of adversarial intent cloaked in algorithmic certainty, and the emergence of synthetic feedback loops that can transform foresight into a driver of escalation. Together, these dynamics may generate self-fulfilling escalatory prophecies, undermining crisis stability as simulated futures begin to shape the behaviours they were intended to anticipate or prevent. The article theorises synthetic foresight as a distinct epistemic force – not merely a predictive aid, but a transformative influence on how strategic futures are imagined, interpreted, and acted upon.