Childhood Trauma and Suicide Risk Among University Students: A Longitudinal Moderated Mediation Model of Depression and Self-Compassion

OBJECTIVE: Childhood trauma is a potent predictor of suicide risk in university students, yet the longitudinal mechanisms and protective factors that are associated with this trajectory are not fully understood. This study aimed to elucidate the pathway from childhood trauma to suicide risk by examining the mediating role of depression and, critically, to test whether self-compassion functions as a protective factor that moderates these direct and indirect relationships. METHODS: A longitudinal design was employed, drawing from a large cohort of Chinese university students. From an initial sample of 24,548 students, 3,712 individuals with a history of childhood trauma provided complete data at baseline (T1: childhood trauma, self-compassion, depression) and at a one-year follow-up (T2: depression, suicide risk). A longitudinal moderated mediation model was tested to analyze the data. RESULTS: Childhood trauma was a significant direct predictor of suicide risk. Crucially, the mediating effect of depression on the relationship between trauma and suicide risk was significantly moderated by self-compassion. The moderated mediation analysis revealed that the indirect pathway from trauma to suicide risk via depression was non-significant at low and mean levels of self-compassion but became a significant protective pathway at high levels of self-compassion. CONCLUSION: Childhood trauma exerted both direct and indirect influences on suicide risk, with depression serving as a key mediating mechanism. Self-compassion emerged as a vital resilience factor that buffered both the direct effect of childhood trauma on suicide risk and the pathway from trauma to depression.