Diagnosing Maintenance-Dominated Regimes: A Comparative Allocation Framework for Constrained Infrastructure Systems

This work introduces a comparative diagnostic framework for identifying Maintenance-Dominated Regimes (MDRs) in constrained infrastructure systems. The framework evaluates how complex systems shift from expansion-oriented allocation toward stabilization-oriented allocation when maintenance burden, coordination friction, replacement intensity, and externalized costs begin to govern system behavior. The paper defines four operational variables: stabilization allocation (M), coordination friction (Q), externalized burden (X), and cannibalization ratio (C). These variables are used to diagnose allocation transitions across electric utility systems, water infrastructure, and an exploratory biological maintenance comparison. The framework is diagnostic rather than deterministic. It does not propose a universal law of persistence or predict system failure. Instead, it provides a reproducible allocation-based methodology for identifying maintenance-constrained operating regimes using publicly observable data sources.