Stablecoins and the Dollar: Historical Parallels and Future Risks

Stablecoins have burst onto the scene, offering the potential for cheaper, faster, and smarter payments—perhaps even strengthened dollar dominance. Yet, for all the novel technology, stablecoins present a host of age-old risks that caution against such boosterism. This paper draws parallels to nineteenth-century monetary history, focusing on the chaotic free banking era (1837–1863) and the more stable national banking era (1864–1913), and finds that the current regime under the GENIUS Act is closer to the former than the latter. The paper also considers additional risks that could undermine trust in stablecoins, including illicit finance and corruption.